******WARNING: If you aren't all caught up on the show so far, there are spoilers ahead!******
I've been feeling this theory for a while now, and in the last few weeks I've come to feel certain about it. I haven't read the books, but have heard that in the books there is a twin storyline that comes into play (which is where I get the twin idea from). I think that there was a parent-trap-swap type scenario long ago where Alison and her twin switched places and assumed each other's identities. The girls grew up thinking they knew Alison, but in fact it was really her twin living Alison's life.
I feel absolutely certain of this theory now because of a line from the last episode: Spencer is walking around Radley late at night and sees Alison, assuming she is a dream. During their conversation, Alison says, "Oh honey, you didn't know me when you knew me." BAM. The girls knew the twin, NOT Alison!
Another reason I think Alison is alive is because the girls have seen her in what they believe is a dream state. I think it will be revealed that they were not dreaming, and Alison really was visiting them. Big clue: when Aria was being drugged by Meredith, Alison came into Aria's room, spoke to her, grabbed a doll and set it by the door. Aria thought she was dreaming, but when she woke up, the doll was by the door exactly where Alison had placed it.
2.) Alison is the girl in the red coat.
Building on my first point, I think Alison is the girl in the red coat, running everything. However, I cannot quite figure out what her motive to torture the girls is. Does she think they had something to do with her twin's death? Does she resent them for something they did to her twin?
The only thing I can come up with (and this is a bit of a stretch), is that maybe the girls knew Alison when they were kids, and when Alison and her twin made the swap, no one noticed. Maybe she blames the girls for why she and her twin switched places (whatever that may be), or maybe something happened between her and the girls while she knew them. I can't quite figure it out yet.
3.) Spencer is joining the A Team to get answers.
At the end of the last episode, we discover that Spencer has told Mona she will join the A Team. I think she is following Toby's footsteps (who I think is alive and well-- more on that later), because she's realizing if she can't beat the A Team through opposition, she'll have to beat them by infiltrating and breaking them from within. I think the show is going to try to keep us guessing if Spencer is really bad or not (like they have been with Toby), but we all know Spencer is too clever to not have a plan for this. Also, I think she is faking crazy to stay in Radley and get answers.
4.) Toby is alive, and good.
I haven't been fooled for a second into believing that Toby's involvement in the A Team is malicious in nature. I think he joined because Spencer always shut him out of everything that was happening, and it was his only way to get answers and ensure her safety.
Obviously, Toby isn't dead. It's easy to get caught up in the storyline of this show, but at the end of the day, this is a television show. It wants ratings. It wants viewers. It would not write its biggest character relationship and dilemma (Toby & Spencer) out of the show. Financially, it makes absolutely no sense.
Furthermore, Marlene King stated that Toby's intentions were "not good." I think this fooled a lot of people into misreading that statement as saying Toby is bad. We have to put on our lawyer hats, people! Toby doesn't have good intentions. Toward what? The girls? The A Team? Not eating carbs after lunch? It is extremely vague, and this show is notorious for releasing very vague statements that infer things to throw off the audience.
5.) "Alison" will be revealed in the red coat, but we won't find out if she is Alison or her twin until next season.
I think this will be the cliffhanger of the finale. In the last few seconds, Spencer meets up with Red Coat and she turns around, revealing an Alison looking girl. Cut. We'll have to wait until next season to hear any explanation of who she is.
What are your thoughts and predictions? I would love to hear them!!